NEMA Urges Communities to Lead the Charge in Flood Risk Reduction
- Zikan Realtors
- 21 hours ago
- 5 min read
A recent directive from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has urged Lagos communities to "lead the charge" in flood risk reduction. To the uninitiated retail buyer, this sounds like a call for civic responsibility—a prompt for landlords to clear gutters and for Community Development Associations (CDAs) to coordinate sandbagging efforts.
At Zikan Prop Solutions, we interpret this signal differently.
When a federal agency shifts the burden of disaster mitigation onto local communities in a hyper-urbanised environment like Lagos, it is an implicit admission of infrastructure exhaustion. It signals that the state’s primary drainage master plans are either lagging behind the pace of private development or are being outmatched by the sheer volume of the Atlantic’s encroachment. For the institutional investor, this isn't a call to grab a shovel; it is a prompt to audit the "sovereign guarantee" of the land underneath their feet.
What the News Actually Means: The Privatisation of Resilience
The headlines suggest a "new national response paradigm." In the context of Lagos real estate, this translates to the Privatisation of Resilience.
When NEMA advocates for community-led mitigation, they are effectively stating that the government’s ability to protect your property value through macro-engineering—like the Great Wall of Lagos or the primary drainage channels in Eti-Osa—is reaching its limit.
What this announcement changes: It shifts the financial liability of "flood-proofing" from the public budget to the property owner’s Opex (Operating Expenses).
What it does not change: The topographical reality. No amount of community-led gutter cleaning will save a development sitting in a natural depression in Ajah if the primary channels are blocked downstream.
The Misunderstanding: Most buyers will see this as a temporary seasonal warning. Insiders see it as a permanent structural shift where Elevation and Drainage Autonomy become the new "Location, Location, Location."
Micro-Market Implications: The Winners and the Stranded Assets
Not all Lagos flooding is created equal. The NEMA directive will have wildly different impacts across the Ibeju-Lekki to Epe corridor.
1. The "False Positive" in Ajah and Orchid
Retail investors often assume that because an area is built-up and high-density, the infrastructure is "settled." In truth, the Ajah-Orchid axis is currently the most vulnerable to the "community-led" fallacy. Because these areas lack integrated secondary drainage, individual estates are building "islands of resilience"—elevating their internal roads while pushing water into neighbouring communities. This creates a "race to the top" (literally) that devalues lower-lying properties regardless of their internal finishings.
2. The Ibeju-Lekki / Epe Buffer
Sophisticated capital is quietly moving further east toward the Epe corridor. Why? Topography. Unlike the coastal barrier system of the Lekki Peninsula (where much of the land is 0.5m to 3m above sea level), parts of Epe offer natural elevation. We are seeing a shift where investors are trading the "Island" prestige for the security of higher ground.
3. The Island vs. Mainland Dynamic
While the Island remains the commercial heartbeat, the NEMA warning reinforces the value of "Old Money" Mainland areas like Ikeja GRA and parts of Surulere. These areas have established, albeit ageing, primary drainage networks. The cost of "resilience" in a new-build Lekki estate is an additional 15-20% on the ticket price; on the Mainland, that resilience is often already "baked into" the land value.
What Insiders Notice Early
While the public reads news about relief materials in Cross River or Kano, Lagos insiders are watching the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources.
We have observed a quiet but aggressive increase in "Right of Way" (ROW) enforcement. Insiders are not waiting for NEMA; they are verifying if their developer’s fence encroaches on a primary channel by even a centimetre. In the last quarter, we have seen several transactions in the Ikota and Chevron axis fall through during the "intelligence" phase because the topographical survey revealed the land was a natural runoff path.
The signal most people overlook? The Insurance Premium Spike. Private insurers are quietly recalibrating their flood risk maps for Lagos. When the cost of insuring a commercial asset in Victoria Island rises by 30% because of "environmental risk," the yield is compressed. That is the moment the asset becomes "stranded."
Common Buyer Mistakes Triggered by This News
The "Gutter" Fallacy: Buyers believe that if the estate has "good gutters," they are safe. In Lagos, gutters are useless if there is no Discharge Point. If the estate’s water flows into a blocked public canal, your "luxury" estate is just a high-end swimming pool.
Overestimating the "Coastal Highway" Protection: There is a misconception that the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway will act as a sea wall. While it provides a physical barrier, it can also act as a dam if cross-drainage isn't managed perfectly.
The "Dry Season" Amnesia: We see a surge in transactions between November and February when the ground is dry. Sophisticated investors only close deals after seeing a topographical "Inundation Report" that simulates a 24-hour downpour.
How Smart Investors Reframe the Opportunity
At Zikan Prop Solutions, we advise our clients to move from Passive Ownership to Risk-Adjusted Positioning.
Traditional Buyer Focus | Sophisticated Investor Filter |
Finishing and Interior Design | Base Flood Elevation (BFE) |
Proximity to the Expressway | Proximity to a Primary Drainage Discharge |
Current Market Price | Cost of Future "Resilience Opex" |
Rental Yields | Climate-Adjusted Exit Value |
The "opportunity" isn't in buying cheap, flood-prone land and hoping for a government miracle. The opportunity is in acquiring assets in the "Second Tier" of the Island—areas like the high-ground pockets of Osapa or the naturally elevated hinterlands of Epe—before the market fully corrects for flood risk.
Conclusion: Clarity Over Clamour
The NEMA directive is a sobering reminder that in the Lagos property market, the environment is a non-negotiable stakeholder. While others react with temporary measures or emotional appeals for government intervention, the discerning investor recognises that the "infrastructure gap" is a permanent feature of the current cycle.
Real estate in Lagos is no longer just about the "deal"; it is about the Defence. Capital preservation requires looking past the glossy 3D renders and understanding the hydrology of the soil. At Zikan Prop Solutions, we don't just find you a property; we audit the landscape to ensure your capital doesn't wash away with the next rainy season.
🏢 Zikan Prop Solutions
🥇 Certified Real Estate Consultant | Multi Award-Winning Realtor
Helping you make the best real estate purchase & investment decisions.
📱 +234 703 000 3514
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