Is 2026 a Buyer's or Seller's Market in Lagos? A Strategic Guide for Diaspora Investors
- Zikan Realtors
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
The answer to whether 2026 favors buyers or sellers in Lagos isn't straightforward—it depends entirely on which segment, location, and timeline you're examining. Unlike Western markets where conditions are relatively uniform, Lagos operates as multiple distinct micro-markets simultaneously. While sellers dominate in infrastructure-adjacent corridors, buyers hold leverage in mature, oversupplied areas. For diaspora investors specifically, 2026 presents a rare strategic window that smart money is already positioning to capture.
The Post-Devaluation Advantage: Your Hidden Edge
Let's start with the most important factor for diaspora investors: the naira's dramatic devaluation from ₦460/$ in mid-2023 to ₦1,500-1,600/$ in 2024-2025 has fundamentally reset your purchasing power. A $100,000 budget that bought ₦46 million worth of Lagos property in 2022 now buys ₦150-160 million worth—a 3x multiplication.
Here's what most diaspora investors miss: this advantage has a shelf life. Property prices in naira terms are gradually adjusting upward to reflect new construction costs and currency realities. The gap between "old pricing psychology" (sellers who haven't fully adjusted to the new naira reality) and "new market fundamentals" creates a 12-24 month arbitrage window. We're currently in month 18-20 of that window.
By late 2026, this gap will largely close. Properties priced at "bargain" dollar-equivalent levels today will either sell out or reprice upward. The buyer's advantage isn't permanent—it's a transition-phase phenomenon that expires as markets normalize.
Action point: If you've been watching Lagos property from abroad thinking "prices seem high," reframe your analysis. In dollar terms, premium Lagos property is 50-65% cheaper than it was three years ago. That discount is shrinking monthly.
Geographic Segmentation: Where Buyers vs Sellers Have Power
Lagos isn't a single market, it's a collection of micro-markets with different supply-demand dynamics:
Seller's markets (limited negotiating room):
Lekki Phase 1 (completed, titled properties): Inventory is tight. Quality properties sell within 3-6 months. Expect 5-10% negotiating room maximum. Sellers know diaspora demand is strong here and can wait for their price.
Infrastructure-adjacent corridors (within 5km of Lekki Port, rail stations): Speculative demand is returning. Properties in Ajah near the port or along the Blue Line route are seeing multiple inquiries. Sellers have regained confidence. Negotiating leverage is minimal.
Ikoyi and premium Victoria Island: The ultra-prime segment has fully recovered. International-standard properties are scarce. Diaspora buyers and local high-net-worth individuals compete aggressively. Some properties receive multiple offers.
Buyer's markets (significant negotiating power):
Lekki Phase 2 and beyond: Oversupply from the 2010-2015 building boom remains. Many developers still holding inventory will negotiate 10-18% below asking prices for serious cash buyers, especially diaspora investors who can close quickly.
Ibeju-Lekki land and early-stage developments: The speculative frenzy cooled after 2023's economic turbulence. Land sellers who bought at peak prices (2021-2022) are now realistic about exits. You can negotiate 20-30% below 2022 peak prices in many cases.
Mainland secondary locations (Ikeja GRA, Maryland, Gbagada): These markets have mature inventory and aging infrastructure. They're not "hot" but they're stable. Sellers are motivated because buyer pools are smaller. Expect 12-20% negotiating room.
Balanced markets:
Lekki Phase 1 (off-plan projects): Neither buyers nor sellers have overwhelming advantage. Prices are fair but not bargains. Negotiating room exists (8-12%) but isn't dramatic.
The Inventory Overhang Reality
Lagos has substantial completed but unsold inventory from pre-2023 projects—estimated at 12,000-15,000 units across Lekki, Ajah, and satellite areas. This is simultaneously a problem and an opportunity.
For sellers, this inventory creates competition and pressure. For buyers, especially diaspora investors who can close quickly with hard currency, it creates leverage. Developers holding 8-12 unsold units in a completed project will offer meaningful concessions to buyers who can purchase multiple units or close within 60 days.
The key insight: this inventory is declining. Absorption rates improved 25-30% in 2024 versus 2023. At current absorption rates, excess inventory could clear by late 2026 or early 2027. Once it clears, buyer leverage disappears.
Strategic implication: 2026 is likely the last year of meaningful inventory overhang. By 2027, markets tighten and shift decisively toward sellers.
Diaspora-Specific Timing Considerations
Your optimal 2026 strategy depends on your timeline and objectives:
If you're buying to hold 5-10 years: 2026 strongly favors buyers. You're purchasing at post-devaluation "discounted" dollar prices, current inventory overhang gives you negotiating leverage, and infrastructure projects maturing through 2026-2030 will drive appreciation. Acting in H1 2026 is preferable to H2 because inventory is clearing and prices are firming quarterly.
If you're buying for near-term rental income: It's a neutral market. Rental yields in dollar terms remain compressed (2-3% gross yields) due to the naira devaluation. You'll get reasonable capital appreciation but don't expect strong cash flow immediately. Local rental markets need 18-24 months to adjust rents upward in naira terms to reflect new currency realities.
If you're buying for quick flip (2-3 years): Approach cautiously. The rapid appreciation phase (2026-2028) benefits long-term holders more than short-term flippers because transaction costs in Nigeria are high (legal fees, agency commissions, potential capital gains tax). Unless you're buying in emerging infrastructure corridors with 35-40% appreciation potential, flipping economics are challenging.
The Seller's Dilemma: Hold or Exit?
If you currently own Lagos property and are considering selling in 2026, you face a strategic choice. Markets are improving—transaction volumes are up, buyer inquiries are increasing, and prices are firming. But we're not yet in a hot market where sellers can demand premiums.
Selling in 2026 makes sense if:
(1) You need liquidity and can't wait 18-24 months for better prices; (2) Your property is in an area with limited growth catalysts (mature mainland locations); (3) You're concerned about potential 2027-2028 economic disruptions and want to derisk.
Holding through 2026-2027 makes sense if: (1) Your property is near maturing infrastructure (rail, ports, roads); (2) You can afford to wait for the market to fully absorb current inventory; (3) You believe the naira will stabilize further, making your property more attractive to local buyers with strengthened purchasing power.
The Verdict for Diaspora Investors
2026 is a buyer's market with an expiration date. You have more power than you'll have in 2027-2028, but less than you had in 2023-2024. The sweet spot is Q1-Q3 2026—early enough to capture remaining inventory overhang and late enough that currency stability is clearer.
The sophisticated move isn't trying to time absolute bottoms. It's recognizing that Lagos property cycles reward those who act during transition phases when uncertainty keeps others sidelined but fundamentals are improving.
Three indicators will tell you if the window is closing faster than expected: (1) Transaction volumes increasing 30%+ year-over-year by Q2 2026; (2) Inventory clearing in prime Lekki Phase 1 to below 6-month supply; (3) Developers beginning new project launches at prices 15-20% above 2024 levels.
If all three occur, the market has shifted to sellers by late 2026. If none occur, buyer leverage extends into 2027.
Zikan Prop Solutions provides diaspora investors with real-time market intelligence and negotiation support that turns buyer's market opportunities into concrete wealth-building outcomes. We don't just identify properties—we identify market timing advantages and help you capture them.
🏢 Zikan Prop Solutions
🥇 Certified Real Estate Consultant | Multi Award-Winning Realtor
Helping you make the best real estate purchase & investment decisions.
📱 +234 703 000 3514
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